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Sterling strength by stealth

Data/Event Risks GBP: Last month saw some fairly good CPI numbers, the headline rate falling to 2.4%. There were several one-off factors contributing to this, which are likely to unwind this month. The market expects an increase to 2.6%. A reading stronger than this could offer some further support to sterling, which reached a 4 month high vs. the dollar yesterday.
Tovább »

18/06/2013 @ 07:04 GMT

RBA minutes

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in minutes of its June 4 meeting, left the door open to further cuts in interest rates having eased to a record low of 2.75 percent the previous month.
Tovább »

18/06/2013 @ 01:35 GMT

Fed fight

Data/Event Risks FX: Leaders of the G8 area set to meet today and tomorrow. There is low risk of a statement that will be focused on FX, with other issues higher up on the agenda. USD: The Empire manufacturing not a big one for the dollar, with main focus on the CPI data tomorrow and Fed decision Wednesday (see below).
Tovább »

17/06/2013 @ 07:49 GMT

Dollar slippage

Data/Event Risks USD: The data in the US is all second tier in the form of PPI, Michigan confidence and industrial production. Michigan has the potential to cause some wobbles on the dollar, coming later in the session and ahead of the weekend. EUR: Inflation data is just the final release, so some chances of revision but they should not impact the single currency. Inflation is seen holding at 1.4%.
Tovább »

14/06/2013 @ 07:18 GMT

Finding a theme

Data/Event Risks GBP: Labour market data has the potential to impact sterling if some way off expectations. Recall, the UK is the opposite of the US, so the economy has disappointed but the labour market has held up relatively well. Both measures of unemployment rate are seen holding steady, with the narrower claimant count measure of unemployment seen falling modestly.
Tovább »

12/06/2013 @ 07:05 GMT

Dollar indecision

Data/Event Risks EUR: Just data from Italy worth watching, but it’s unlikely to cause too many issues for the single currency. Industrial production is seen flat in month on month terms, whilst GDP is the final release so not a risk for markets.
Tovább »

10/06/2013 @ 06:58 GMT

Taking a breather from overnight moves

Three main factors in overnight trade. Firstly a modestly weaker tone to the dollar and the dis-connect between the data (softer) and Fed speak of last month (more hawkish) continues to be resolved by the dollar following the data. Secondly, the yen continues to benefit from Abenomics losing its shine, the PM not in a hurry to implement the more difficult reforms needed to get the economy going. Finally, the Aussie continued to get a beating, with no particular impetus to the selling seen over the past 24 hours.
Tovább »

06/06/2013 @ 08:33 GMT

3 reasons why ADP matters

Data/Event Risks GBP: The manufacturing PMI provided a modest lift to sterling on Monday and the currency will be watching for a repeat on the services release today, which is expected to rise from 52.9 to 53.1.
Tovább »

05/06/2013 @ 06:46 GMT

About turn

Data/Event Risks GBP: The construction PMI data has to be some way off expectations to elicit a response, but sterling will be happy to see a move back above 50.0 (expected 49.8), especially after the better than expected manufacturing PMI data yesterday. USD: The market will be even more sensitive to US data after yesterday’s weaker than expected manufacturing ISM, but the trade balance today is only a modest risk event, the market looking for a USD 41.1 bln deficit in April.
Tovább »

04/06/2013 @ 05:38 GMT

The long wait

Data/Event Risks EUR: Watching final manufacturing PMI data for the Eurozone. Single currency will be focused on potential for downward revisions, especially in the core countries of France and Germany. USD: The US manufacturing ISM (PMI equivalent) has held above the 50.0 level for the past in all but one month of the past four years. The market is looking for a steady headline figure at 50.7 today, but the dollar will be vulnerable if we do get close to or below the 50 level.
Tovább »

03/06/2013 @ 07:12 GMT