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Kiwi risks

Data/Event Risks EUR: Focus on the German production numbers after the stronger orders data yesterday gave the euro a lift, although it was notable that the euro failed to sustain the gains later on. Production is seen falling 0.1% in March, after 0.5% gain during February. NZD: Labour market data is released at 23:45 GMT, with the unemployment rate seen nudging lower to 6.8%. Note that AUDNZD has been moving lower for the previous 7 weeks now, but comments overnight threaten a continuation of this trend.
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08/05/2013 @ 06:46 GMT

The new Aussie reality

Data/Event Risks EUR: Just German Factory Orders data released today. This is not a major one for the euro, but could knock the singe currency if weaker than expected. Market looks for 0.5% MoM fall after 2.3% gain last month. NZD: The Central Bank head Wheeler is due to speak at 21:05 GMT this evening, with the NZD seeing further strength recently and at a 2.5 year high vs. the Aussie dollar. The market will be sensitive to any hints of concern from the central bank.
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07/05/2013 @ 06:45 GMT

Trading payrolls

Data/Event Risks GBP: A close eye on the services PMI data. The manufacturing series was modestly better than expected and this gave sterling a decent lift in the middle of the week to 1.5606 Fibonacci level on cable, which remains the upside level to watch. USD: The employment report today will keep ranges on the tight side ahead of the numbers. Market looks for 140k gain in headline payrolls, although the recent run of data suggests we could see a softer number. Unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.6%.
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03/05/2013 @ 07:03 GMT

ECB negative rates and FX

Data/Event Risks EUR: All eyes are on the ECB. The expectation is that they will cut the main reference rate (currently 0.75%) by 25bp. The bigger issue for euro is whether discount rate (which remunerates funds ‘parked’ at the ECB by banks) is cut to a negative number (currently it’s zero). This would be a far more negative factor for the single currency, ultimately setting up EURUSD for a re-test of 1.30 in the near-future.
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02/05/2013 @ 07:21 GMT

Dollar retreat

Data/Event Risks GBP: Strong focus on the manufacturing PMI data and with liquidity lower owing to the holiday in many European countries, there is the risk of some outsized moves in sterling. The market looks for 48.5 reading and anything above the 50 level would be very welcome and would place a decent bid under sterling. Note that BoE members Broadbent and Bailey speak at 17:00 and 19:00 GMT respectively.
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01/05/2013 @ 06:55 GMT

The new yen

Data/Event Risks USD: The main focus will be with the consumer confidence data at 14:00 GMT. Last release saw the headline reading fall to 59.7, with the market looking for a small rebound to 61.0. Dollar has been more resilient to weaker US data recently, partly owing to weaker than expected readings in non-US data.
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30/04/2013 @ 07:10 GMT

The rate cut dilemma

Data/Event Risks USD: Today’s data will be of only minor interest for the dollar. The income and spending numbers at 12:30 have been superseded by the GDP numbers on Friday and the pending home sales is never a big issue for market unless it’s drastically away from expectations.
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29/04/2013 @ 06:59 GMT

The euro’s resilience

Data/Event Risks USD: The first estimate of Q1 quarter GDP expected to show a 3.0% annualised gain, with a decent rebound in consumption anticipated. The last quarter was held back by weak government spending and inventories. The dollar has still displayed a strong positive correlation with data surprises (gaining on stronger than expected output), although this correlation has been declining, in part as data has weakened beyond the US (Europe and Asia).
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26/04/2013 @ 07:13 GMT

Sterling reversal

Data/Event Risks GBP: That so much attention is paid to a number which is prone to revisions and looks back over the previous 3 months is sometimes a mystery. Even more attention will be paid today because if GDP declines, the UK will have officially entered a triple-dip recession. The market is looking for a 0.1% increase. A decline would see sterling hit as expectations of further QE increase.
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25/04/2013 @ 06:47 GMT

More dollar gains

Data/Event Risks USD: The market is pretty good at shaking off errant numbers on the durable goods side, with the biggest data surprise over the past year only seeing at most 12-15 pips change in EURUSD in the subsequent half hour of trading. Market looks for partial reversal from headline gain of 5.7% in March.
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24/04/2013 @ 07:06 GMT

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