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Aussie car crash

Data/Event Risks GBP: MPC member Weale speaks early on, but only small risk of an impact on sterling. CAD: Inflation data is released at 12:30 GMT. The CAD has performed well in the face of the stronger dollar, only easing modestly vs. the greenback and holding below the 1.02 level for the most part. Inflation is seen falling further to 0.6% on the headline measure, with the core rate falling to 1.2% (from 1.4%). A weaker number could well serve undermine the resilience of the CAD seen so far this month.
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17/05/2013 @ 06:49 GMT

Mixed messages from Japan

Data/Event Risks EUR: The inflation data is the final number, so not likely to be a market moving event, but if revised lower it could dent the euro a little as expectations of further stimulus measures from the ECB (negative deposit rate) resurface. USD: The better weekly claims data last week were a factor in the dollar surge seen into the close, so markets will be more sensitive than normal to the data. The market expects a small move higher, from 323k to 330k.
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16/05/2013 @ 07:26 GMT

Policy and sterling

Data/Event Risks EUR: The GDP data for the Eurozone GDP is set to show a contraction after the German data came out weaker than expected this morning (rising just 0.1%). Eurozone initially seen falling -0.1%, but at least 0.2% decline now looking likely. A weaker number than this would further knock the euro.
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15/05/2013 @ 07:24 GMT

The new reality

Data/Event Risks EUR: The ZEW data at 09:00 GMT the main data risk for the single currency. Focus will be on German data after the fall seen in last month’s release (sentiment back below 40 level), with market expecting a bounce back up to this level. Steady (last was 36.3) or lower would knock the euro. EU finance minister meet today, so just worth keeping an eye out for stray comments. Banking union is back on the agenda. AUD: Australia budget presentation at 09:30 GMT (see below).
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14/05/2013 @ 07:05 GMT

The suffering Aussie

Data/Event Risks EUR: Eurozone finance ministers meet later in the day, but there are no potentially market-moving events are on the agenda. Nevertheless, there always remains the risk of stray comments from finance ministers impacting the single currency. USD: Retail sales are seen falling 0.3% in April, after a 0.4% fall in March. Firmer data should be dollar supportive, although the positive relationship between strong data and the dollar has been declining recently.
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13/05/2013 @ 06:51 GMT

Breaking barriers

Data/Event Risks CAD: Labour market data the focus, especially after the disappointing numbers seen recently. The rate seen holding steady at 7.2%, with employment rising 15k (54.5k decline last month). The CAD held up fairly well to the stronger US dollar seen yesterday, but could play catch up with other weaker currencies if labour market data disappoints.
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10/05/2013 @ 07:08 GMT

Turning sterling?

Data/Event Risks JPN: Overnight into Friday there will once again be a focus on the weekly Portfolio data from Japan. The thinking was that the weaker yen would entice investors abroad for returns, but so far this has not proven to be the case. GBP: Industrial production data of modest interest ahead of the interest rate decision. The chances of a move on quantitative easing have diminished since last month, meaning only a modest bounce for sterling on such an outcome (10-15 pips).
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09/05/2013 @ 07:02 GMT

Kiwi risks

Data/Event Risks EUR: Focus on the German production numbers after the stronger orders data yesterday gave the euro a lift, although it was notable that the euro failed to sustain the gains later on. Production is seen falling 0.1% in March, after 0.5% gain during February. NZD: Labour market data is released at 23:45 GMT, with the unemployment rate seen nudging lower to 6.8%. Note that AUDNZD has been moving lower for the previous 7 weeks now, but comments overnight threaten a continuation of this trend.
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08/05/2013 @ 06:46 GMT

The new Aussie reality

Data/Event Risks EUR: Just German Factory Orders data released today. This is not a major one for the euro, but could knock the singe currency if weaker than expected. Market looks for 0.5% MoM fall after 2.3% gain last month. NZD: The Central Bank head Wheeler is due to speak at 21:05 GMT this evening, with the NZD seeing further strength recently and at a 2.5 year high vs. the Aussie dollar. The market will be sensitive to any hints of concern from the central bank.
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07/05/2013 @ 06:45 GMT

Trading payrolls

Data/Event Risks GBP: A close eye on the services PMI data. The manufacturing series was modestly better than expected and this gave sterling a decent lift in the middle of the week to 1.5606 Fibonacci level on cable, which remains the upside level to watch. USD: The employment report today will keep ranges on the tight side ahead of the numbers. Market looks for 140k gain in headline payrolls, although the recent run of data suggests we could see a softer number. Unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.6%.
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03/05/2013 @ 07:03 GMT

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